China aims to deflect an asteroid by 2030 to demonstrate its Earth protection capabilities

China to Launch Mission Targeting Asteroid with Dual Spacecraft Strategy for Planetary Defense by 2027

TL;DR

China is planning its first asteroid impact mission as part of a planetary defense strategy, aiming to strike near-Earth object 2015 XF261. The mission involves two spacecraft: one will collide with the asteroid, while the other will monitor the impact to gather crucial data on solar system origins and planetary defense methods. Scheduled for a potential launch around 2027, the mission is inspired by NASA’s DART and aims to develop capabilities for deflecting potential Earth-bound asteroids. This ambitious plan highlights China’s growing role in space exploration and planetary defense. Join the conversation below—what do you think of China’s upcoming asteroid mission?

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China is gearing up for its first mission to strike an asteroid as part of its planetary defense strategy. The mission has a dual objective: one spacecraft will collide with the asteroid, while another will monitor the event to gain insights into the solar system and its origins.

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) might have already identified its target—near-Earth object (NEO) 2015 XF261, an asteroid approximately 100 feet (30 meters) wide.

According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) small-body database, 2015 XF261 made a close approach to Earth recently, on July 9, passing within 31 million miles (50 million kilometers) of our planet at a speed of around 26,000 mph (42,000 kph), roughly 30 times the speed of sound.

The nonprofit Planetary Society noted this as the latest step in China’s planning for asteroid impact missions, highlighting the nation’s growing interest in planetary defense.

A recent paper in the Journal of Deep Space Exploration discusses the proposed mission targeting 2015 XF261.

“For China’s first near-Earth asteroid defense on-orbit verification mission, a defensive disposal demonstration will be carried out on the potential risk of near-Earth asteroids impacting the Earth,” the study states.

“The scientific objectives of the on-orbit verification of asteroid defense and its specific scientific exploration mission will be designed and proposed,” it adds. “A scientific payload demand analysis will be carried out, and payload configuration plans and exploration mission requirements will be proposed to provide a decision-making basis for the future implementation of asteroid defense missions.”

The position of the asteroid 2015 XF261 on July 9, 2024, as it made a close approach to Earth. (Image credit: NASA JPL small body lookup database)

Following the impact of DART

This planned mission is inspired by NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), a landmark planetary defense mission that, in September 2022, impacted the smaller body in the Didymos binary asteroid system.

The DART spacecraft, weighing 1,260 pounds (570 kilograms), struck the moonlet Dimorphos, which orbits the larger 2,560-foot (780 m) asteroid Didymos, at a speed of 14,000 mph (22,500 kph). This collision successfully altered the orbits of the two asteroids, demonstrating that a kinetic impactor could potentially deflect a smaller asteroid from an Earth-bound path, given enough lead time.

In October 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) plans to launch the Hera spacecraft to the Didymos system to further examine the effects of the DART mission. Hera is expected to arrive at Dimorphos and Didymos in 2026.

An illustration of DART approaching its target asteroid system. (Image credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben)

China’s 2015 XF261 mission will involve two spacecraft—one to impact the NEO and another to observe the asteroid for six months to a year after the collision, effectively combining the roles of DART and Hera.

Asteroids like 2015 XF261 are believed to be remnants from the formation of the solar system around 4.6 billion years ago, providing a chance to study “pristine” material that served as the building blocks for planets, including Earth.

An artist’s depiction of gas and dust surrounding a young star. The solar system was in a similar situation 4.6 billion years ago. (Image credit: NASA)

The CNSA mission is anticipated to launch before 2030, with the exact choice of the NEO target depending on the launch timeline. SINA Technology reported in April 2024 that Wu Weiren, director of China’s Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL), set a more definitive launch date for around 2027.

In 2027, 2015 XF261 will pass by Earth in March and May, but it will still be about 20 million miles (32 million km) away, requiring time for the CNSA to reach it. DART reached Dimorphos when it was only 7 million miles from Earth, a journey that took 10 months.

The CNSA could have another opportunity to impact 2015 XF261 in April 2028, when the asteroid will be roughly 13 million miles (21 million km) away. The best chance for the mission appears to be in April 2029, when the asteroid will come within 4.2 million miles (6.8 million km) of Earth. Another viable opportunity will be in April 2030, when 2015 XF261 approaches Earth within about 4.4 million miles (7.1 million km).

This is not CNSA’s first proposed asteroid impact mission. In 2023, the Chinese space agency seemed to be planning a planetary defense test slated for launch in 2025.

This earlier mission was intended to target a different asteroid, 2019 VL5, also about 100 feet (30 m) in diameter. It is unclear why CNSA appears to have shifted focus from 2019 VL5 to 2015 XF261.

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Harry
Harry
26 days ago

Ok this is actually a huge development and I’m glad to see at least some countries take it seriously.
Now…if only we could pay for a little more telescope time so we could spot these asteroids before they have already passed us?

SimonW
SimonW
26 days ago

Reminds me of my science teachers rants – they were great, he essentially was like my Niel degrass Tyson; answering whatever he knew on hand.

He answered about asteroids with “well the problem is, we don’t really know about collision course asteroids till the hit us or they fly right past us”.

Liams
Liams
26 days ago

Ok this is actually a huge development and I’m glad to see at least some countries take it seriously.
Now…if only we could pay for a little more telescope time so we could spot these asteroids before they have already passed us?

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